Pascal's wager suggests that it makes more sense to believe certain things even though eventually we may be proved wrong; small losses versus large gains.
Blaise Pascal was an eminent scientist who lived some four hundred years ago. We are all familiar with him; his name is given to the unit of pressure. Every time we put air into our tyres, say around 2 bars which is 100 kilopascals, we acknowledge him.
Centuries before his time he was playing with ideas concerning probability theory that today is considered old hat. He was a genius.
We shall apply the logic of Pascal's wager to the supply of water to our homes by our utility, in my case the local municipality. It works like this.
Contrary to popular opinion many of the great scientists were religious; Pascal, Galileo and Newton, for example were all Christians. Albert Einstein too believed in God.
Pascal's wager is applied to religion as follows.
We could equally apply Blaise's wager to the electrical grid.
Pascal's wager is a philosophical argument put forward by an eminent scientist.
Bernie's wager is that the grid will fail in South Africa and Day Zero will arrive in my village; so I have installed a solar network and an underground reservoir as a precaution.
The gains, finite ones it is true, have already proved to me that it was the right decision; both are paid off and I have free electricity and water for the foreseeable future.
I have to wait and see if there will be infinite gains; whether the grid will fail and Day Zero arrives.
Actually there have already been infinite gains; I have made my small contribution to the survival of planet Earth.
I'll leave it to you to apply the logic of Pascal's wager to "the poles will melt and sea-level will rise by 100m."
He is also renowned for his plan for the first public bus system in the world, established in Paris in 1662.
Sadly Blaise Pascal died at the tender age of 39 from stomach cancer.
It is clear that the virus will not be fully eradicated. And that somewhere between 10 - 30% of us will experience Long Covid after the infection. So let's apply Pascal's wager.
Choosing not to make palpable changes of lifestyle means there is a chance of around 20% of significant loss. The gain is better health not only against the virus and its insidious effects, but overall protection against diabetes and other comorbidities.
Choosing to believe you might experience Long Covid and making significant changes means great gain of lessened likelihood of ongoing sequelae of the disease; and the small loss, in the opinion of some anyway, of having to strictly limit refined carbs.
Understanding how net carbs work is the first step, after vaccination, to protect ourselves against Long Covid.
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